Senate

11/01 Final 2010 Midterms Forecast: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud

Here’s the entire set of variables for tomorrows elections, including the ever present fraud factor. Rich has been at this for four years and has an excellent track record. MC


Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

The 2010 House and Senate Forecast Models are based on a comprehensive analysis of Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls.

The LV Model predicts a 234-201 GOP House and a 50-48 Democratic Senate. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts a 233-202 GOP House and a 49-49 Senate. Electoral-vote.com has a 51-48-1 Democratic Senate and a 217-200 GOP House with 18 ties. But the registered voter (RV) projections tell a different story.

The Democrats lead the weighted average of 18 Senate RV polls by 8.5%. They lead the corresponding LV sub-samples by 0.9%.

The RV projections indicate a 53-45 Democratic Senate.

The GOP leads the latest 30 House Generic LV polls by 6.8%. They lead the latest 19 RV polls by just 0.7%.

The RV projections indicate a 221-214 Republican House. (more…)

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Predictions


Dave Leip’s US Atlas of Presidential Elections

Here’s my prediction for the Senate races.  I see the Democrats holding on to a 54 seat majority.   If this happens, the thing to watch are  the rules for the new Senate.  Will Reid keep to that 60 vote requirement that he’s used to kill any progressive legislation?  Duh, of course he will! 

My predictions don’t matter that much but the Presidential Atlas site is a gem.  You can get data, review past elections, and participate in a forum.  It’s an excellent resource.  The site is without any bias whatsoever.  Dave Liep collects the data and you get real election results., unlike those provided on election night.   A good deal of voting results come in up to a month after the election.    Membership is free, right column. (more…)

Chris Dodd’s wife and derivatives trading – “all in the family”

Michael Collins

It’s all in the family! Senator Chris Dodd writes a financial reform bill but forgets to regulate derivatives, “financial weapons of mass destruction.” Then we find out that his wife works for the owners of two exchanges that will very likely benefit from Dodd’s “reform” legislation.

They make the rules. They take the money, all of it, and leave us with debt. And they tell us it’s all legal.

Here’s the story.
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The Big Mass Loss: Voters think Obama sides with the banks

“Massachusetts voters have given up on President Obama as an agent for anything but the status quo, and this is most evident in his willingness to dole out trillions of dollars in direct and indirect support to the banks. The Massachusetts polls show this issue to be foremost on the minds of the voters.” Numerian

Michael Collins

The article exerpted below is the first and may end up being the best analysis of the Massachusetts disaster, the loss of the late Senator Edward Kennedy’s seat in the United States Senate.  The “all knowing” pundits have already tagged this as some sort of revolt against President Obama’s health care legislation or a sea change in United States politics.  But there are a few facts that point to the likely cause of the defeat.  Financial commentator Numerian laid it out out very clearly at the start of his analysis:

“An interesting observation was made today by the pollster for Martha Coakley, the hapless Democratic candidate for the Massachusetts senate seat held almost forever by Ted Kennedy. It appears polls are showing that the voters, especially independents who would normally vote Democratic in a liberal blue state like Massachusetts, have instead run to support the Republican candidate as the agent of change. Wasn’t that supposed to be Barack Obama’s signature tune?

(more…)

Unsurprising Poll Results from Massachusetts: Voters Think Obama Sides With the Banks

By Numerian

An interesting observation was made today by the pollster for Martha Coakley, the hapless Democratic candidate for the Massachusetts senate seat held almost forever by Ted Kennedy. It appears polls are showing that the voters, especially independents who would normally vote Democratic in a liberal blue state like Massachusetts, have instead run to support the Republican candidate as the agent of change. Wasn’t that supposed to be Barack Obama’s signature tune?

Massachusetts voters have given up on President Obama as an agent for anything but the status quo, and this is most evident in his willingness to dole out trillions of dollars in direct and indirect support to the banks. The Massachusetts polls show this issue to be foremost on the minds of the voters.
(more…)

THROW THE BUMS OUT – ALL OF THEM Senate Millionaires Kill Mortgage Assistance for Citizens

THROW THE BUMS OUT – ALL OF THEM

Senate Millionaires Kill Mortgage Assistance for Citizens

Michael Collins
Also published here

(Wash. DC, May 1, 2009)  The United States Senate took a swipe at the spirit of May Day in a spectacular show of callous indifference when it voted down a bill to provide limited assistance to citizens at risk for losing their homes.  The final vote was 45 in favor, 51 opposed to Senator Richard Durbin’s (D-IL) mortgage assistance bill.  The original version of the bill covered some but not all of those requiring assistance.  The final version was even more restricted.  It applied to only homeowners currently in foreclosure as a result of actions prior to the start of 2009.

The denial of assistance to citizens by Senators is ironic given the fact that the origins of the current economic crisis came from Senate legislative actions in 1999 and 2000.

While their avarice knows no bounds, their memory suffers.

Apparently these multimillionaire aristocrats of the Senate “gentlemen’s club” haven’t been watching the news.  The International Monetary Fund declared that the United States is in a depression almost three months ago.  Delinquency and foreclosure rates around the country are rising at spectacular rates.  Unemployment has jumped by 3.3 million in the last five months.  Economic growth has declined at a rate of 6.3% in the first quarter of 2009.

What part of economic crisis can’t they understand? Apparently all of it.

Memo to stingy Senators:  Workers and their families are in serious trouble or about to be in trouble.  That means they lack the money to pay for their homes (also known as shelter, a basic human need).  These citizens did nothing to bring on this crisis.

You, the members of the Senate, are largely to blame and you know it. One of the most revealing remarks came from Democrat Ben Nelson (D-NE) who said:

“Do I want to have my rate go up so that somebody else might be able to cram down” their mortgage payment?” asked Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., who voted against the bill.  Associated Press, Apr. 30, 2009

Nelson has never been regarded as the sharpest tool in the shed but he’s set a new standard for ignorance with this remark.  Nelson was worth at least $7.0 million as of reporting in 2008.  Obviously he needs to skimp on every penny to stay afloat.  He’ll offer no breaks for financially strapped citizens on the brink of ruin even if they are in trouble as a result of his support of Wall Street welfare.  The bill would have no impact on his or anybody else’s mortgage rate unless they qualified for help.  In those cases, the rate would go down.

The Durbin bill offered a reasonable change in bankruptcy law that would allow those in foreclosure to ask (simply ask) bankruptcy judges to invoke a “cramdown.”  In that process, the bankruptcy court would set a lower interest rates and longer terms on loans.  This takes the case out of foreclosure and allows citizens to keep their homes and the lets banks collect the money owed at a lower rate over an extended period.  (See this for a real cramdown to benefit all citizens)

The bill was hardly revolutionary since it presumed that homeowners at risk had the money to get in bankruptcy court; that the courts would be able to handle all those in need; and that the judge would accept the request for a cramdown to keep people in their homes.  But the bill might have helped as many as 1.7 million homeowners.

Even with those limitations, Sen. Durbin was forced against the wall and had to negotiate the bill to a lower level of protection.  The final bill rejected by the Senate.  Associated Press reported:  “The latest proposal would have restricted eligibility to homeowners already in foreclosure whose lender had not offered better terms. Homes would also have to be worth less than $729,000 and apply to mortgage loans originated before 2009.” Apr 30, 2009

Durbin’s last stand would have provided protection some homeowners but now there’s no protection for anyone.

William K. Black is the chief fraud investigator who untangled the 1980’s Savings and Loan fiasco.   His comments on the current economic meltdown are instructive and assign blame:

William K. Black: ‘We need some chairmen or chairwomen … in Congress, to hold the necessary hearings (on banking fraud) and we can blast this out. But if you leave the failed CEOs in place, it isn’t just that they’re terrible business people, though they are. It isn’t just that they lack integrity, though they do. Because they were engaged in these frauds … they’re not going to disclose the truth about the assets.”  Bill Moyers Journal, Apr 3, 2009

Senators, you allowed changes in banking regulations that turned Wall Street in to a big casino for the “in crowd” and wiped out millions of small investors and retirement funds.

You failed to monitor the new freedoms you gave the banks and Wall Street after you stripped away citizen protections in law since the Great Depression.

You created the current depression. And now, you’re so stingy you won’t even help a few of the many people victimized by the massive corporate fraud schemes, Ponzi schemes according to Black.

Is there any reason why even one single Senator of the 51 who voted down this assistance should remain in office to complete his or her term? I

s there any reason to hold back from demanding their resignations in every state that they represent? I can’t think of one.  Can you?

END

Permission to reproduce this article in whole or part with attribution of authorship to Michael Collins and a link to this article

Appendices:  Hall of Shame, Things to Come, and Resources

Hall of Shame

The votes lined up in the usual way, with the majority of citizens losing out on positive action.  Of note, the “moderate” Republicans Collins and Snow of Maine both opposed the bill.  The new Senator from Montana, Democrat Tester, voted no.  And Democrat “changling” Specter said no also.

Things to Come

See: Too Little Too Late – The Money Party at Work  Feb. 18,  2009

There are 4.9 million Alt-A and subprime loans.  Alt-A’s are loans to those with higher credit ratings that have special introductory features.  Subprimes are loans to people with marginal credit.

15% of Alt-A loans were at risk in at the start of the year.  30% of subprimes were at risk.

A majority of Alt-A loans will “reset,” increase interest, in the next 2 plus years.  25% of subprimes will do the same at a much higher rate.  That spells disaster since the “resets” are a major trigger for bankruptcy.

Some Resources

Bill Moyers Journal – Interview with William K Black  Bill Moyers Journal, Apr 3, 2009
(Transcripts:  PBS pdf Word.doc) William K Black in the News Stiglitz:  Capitalist Fools  (Essential Reading”
Economic Disaster — Are You Next?  Feb. 5, 2009
Too Little Too Late – The Money Party at Work  Feb. 18,  2009
Enough of Everything But Dollars Mar. 2, 2009

Enabling Acts for an Era of Greed – The Money Party at Work Apr. 14, 2009

Bending Over for Bush

Bending Over For Bush

21 War Loving Senate Democrats
Give Bush $165 Billion for More War

Michael Collins
“Scoop” Independent News
Washington, D.C.

It is now their war. Iraq has been and will be the war of every Senator and Representative who funds the madness.

Over four thousand U.S. troops have been killed in battle in Iraq. Ten times that number have major injuries. Sixty thousand have post traumatic stress disorder. Suicides among veterans are at an epidemic rate, 18 per day, particularly for those who have served in combat. Over a million Iraqis have died as a result of the lawlessness and unrest due to the Bush-Cheney invasion. There are five million Iraqi orphans. “Before it’s over,” the war will cost three trillion dollars, but there’s no end in sight.

Yet each of these Democrats cast that all aside and voted to provide the very worst president in our history, a blatant incompetent, with $165 billion dollars to continue the war.


Democratic Hall of Shame:
Democratic Senators voting more funding for the Bush-Cheney war.

Why would they do that? Because their president asked them to:

“The United States Congress needs to pass a responsible war funding bill that does not tie the hands of our commanders,” Bush said. Reuters May 22, 2008

But wait. Weren’t the Democrats swept into control of both houses of Congress in 2006 in order to obey the public will by getting us out of Iraq? Didn’t they promise to stand up to the insanity of providing more money for a war that gets us into more trouble simply through its continuation?

We’ve come to expect this out of the lock-step Republicans who are “made men” in the culture of death. Weren’t the Democrats supposed to make a difference? It is now abundantly clear that the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party is still in the minority and that the people – Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have no party.

Yesterday, the United States Senate approved an additional $165 billion to continue the Iraq war opposed by about 70% of the people, at a time when over 80% think we’re on the “wrong track.” The people opposed the war before it started. Specifically, a majority of Republicans and Democrats stated a strong preference for weapons inspections and cooperation with other members of the United Nations before any invasion.

In addition, there was enough information well before the 2002 Iraq War Resolution for each and every politician who voted in favor of folly to know that there were no weapons of mass destruction. Politicians speaking directly into a camera telling us what a “hard decision” it was were lying without compunction. They knew much of what we weren’t allowed to know and they supported the war anyway.

But over five years later, these Senators continue the death and carnage, the drain on our much needed resources, and the defamation of the citizens of the United States in the eyes of the world.

Stop the funding, include language for a six month withdrawal, and end it now. That’s how you support the troops, serve the people, and end the destruction of Iraq. Anything less is collaboration. Jumping when Bush commands is positively bizarre.

Stop the war and divert funds to health, rebuilding the economy, and staving off the eco-catastrophes that await us. Impeach Bush and Cheney and hold others accountable for their reckless greed, deliberate and calibrated at each step to maximize profits and salve warped egos.

There is a great deal of political optimism about “change.” How can that happen when the “opposition” party has 21 Senators who won’t change the most damaging policy in memory? In essence, the Senate has a War Party majority of 70. It includes the 21 Democrats listed above plus the 49 Republican Senators.

They don’t care because they don’t have to. They can commit any form of public malfeasance or private outrage, yet they remain. They’re like “the man who came to dinner” and burned the house down. The consequences of the real world don’t apply. They are the ultimate “protected class.” Their tenure is indefinite.

Congress replicates the rigged economy of socialism for the rich and free enterprise for the rest of us. The privatize elections that they funded after Florida 2000 are the perfect vehicle to perpetuate their reign. They serve The Money Party because they’re a part of The Money Party.

It will never stop until the people send an overwhelming message – we do not trust you, not at all. Stop it right now. No more tortured logic. No more Senate multi millionaires club. No more indifference by the pampered who think they’re a huge success because they make the rules for a game they always win.

Real people are suffering every day around the world due to the indifference of those who claim to represent us. They squander opportunity after opportunity, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory every time.

It’s time to stop listening to promises for the future from any politician and demand solutions in the present. What’s their function absent the results to justify their presence in our capitol?

END

Permission to reproduce in whole or in part with attribution of authorship and a link to this article.