Democrats

Predictions


Dave Leip’s US Atlas of Presidential Elections

Here’s my prediction for the Senate races.  I see the Democrats holding on to a 54 seat majority.   If this happens, the thing to watch are  the rules for the new Senate.  Will Reid keep to that 60 vote requirement that he’s used to kill any progressive legislation?  Duh, of course he will! 

My predictions don’t matter that much but the Presidential Atlas site is a gem.  You can get data, review past elections, and participate in a forum.  It’s an excellent resource.  The site is without any bias whatsoever.  Dave Liep collects the data and you get real election results., unlike those provided on election night.   A good deal of voting results come in up to a month after the election.    Membership is free, right column. (more…)

The Binary Fallacy and The End of Both Parties

Michael Collins

Also posted here

(Wash., DC)  The results of eight years of Bush-Cheney at the helm make the demise of the Republican Party an easy call.  Our financial system is on life support.  The major banks are insolvent, according to banking and legal authority William K. Black.  If they’re not, they’re in intensive care.  No matter how many trillions of dollars worth of infusions they receive, they’re not making loans.  The economy is in a free fall with growth down 6% a quarter and job losses running at nearly  600,000 a month.  We’re stuck in two catastrophic wars.  Despite President Obama’s election, we’re viewed with suspicion and disregard throughout the world.

The public knows which party bears the primary blame for all of this and they’re not about to forget any time soon.  The Republican Party is headed for the political graveyard.

They’re not going to rely on past achievements though.  Through their self-proclaimed national leader, the odious Rush Limbaugh, they’ve chosen to attack the first Latino nominee to the Supreme Court, Judge Sonia Sotomayor, for being a “racist.”  Former Oxycontin addict Limbaugh said, “She brings a form of bigotry and racism to the court.”  He went on to say that nominating her was like nominating Klansman and Aryan Nation advocate David Duke for the highest court.

These charges are quite literally bizarre, particularly with Limbaugh calling anyone else a racist.  Newt Gingrich has joined Limbaugh in a duet of stupidity.  This is appropriate since Gingrich is the architect of the power and policies used by Republicans to drive the nation into its current crisis.

The political impact for Republicans will be devastating.  Sotomayor is the first Latino nominated to the Supreme Court.  Latinos represent the fastest growing ethnic group in the United States.  They went for Obama 67% to McCain’s 33%, and comprised 9% of the electorate in 2008.  Among Latino youth, the fastest growing segment of the Latino population, the choice was 76% Obama compared to 19% McCain.

Sotomayor is also a woman nominee.  Women comprised 53% of the electorate in 2008 and they went for Obama 56% to 43% for McCain.  Many of those women are working and struggle with fools like Rush Limbaugh and Newt Gingrich on a regular basis.
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Zogby – Top 3 Dems All Lost Ground

Say What!

By Michael Collins
Washington, D.C.

John Zogby is one of the most accurate pollsters in the history of modern politics. However, his headline below hides the real meaning of his poll comparing the ‘big three” Democratic contenders in match ups against their Republican counterparts. The results are from May 17, July 14, and Nov. 26, 2007.

Zogby Poll: Obama, Edwards Strong but Clinton Slips Against GOPers

General election match-ups show the New York Senator would lose against every top Republican (11/26/2007)”

Hillary losing to all the Republicans is not the big news.

The big news is that in almost every match up, all three leading Democrats are down from their May 17 levels. They were polled against four Republicans candidates for a total of 12 match ups. In 10 of the 12, the Democrats lost ground from May to November. Edwards showed the only improvements and those were by 1% against the struggling McCain and Giuliani tarnished by his strange associates.

Why are the leading Democratic contenders all losing ground since May? Could it be a public comment on the marginal effort of Democrats to get the United States out of Iraq? Or maybe the people are simply fed up with the tepid campaign? Blockbuster issues like accelerating climate change and health insurance are rarely discussed in a serious way. Without any doubt, most of the mainstream media seeks the lowest common denominator. It’s as though they wish to divert attention from the many Bush – Cheney disasters. But the candidates control the agenda. They can choose the topics of focus and debate.

The public may be fed up with the poor performance of both parties. How else do you explain the Thompson phenomena? Rank and file Democrats aren’t quite with gadfly Democratic candidate, former Senator Mike Gravel, when he said to Clinton and Obama: “Some of these people frighten me!” But they’re “trending” in that direction.

Given the Bush – Cheney nosedive and the quality of the Republican candidates, the Democrats should be soaring. The fact that they’re not may reflect an across the board weakness on key issues. Apparently quite a few people read this article from Associated Press, Sept. 26, 2007.

Hanover, N.H. – The leading Democratic White House hopefuls conceded Wednesday night that they cannot guarantee to pull all U.S. combat troops from Iraq by the end of the next presidential term in 2013.

“I think it’s hard to project four years from now,” said Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois in the opening moments of a campaign debate in the nation’s first primary state.

“It is very difficult to know what we’re going to be inheriting,” added Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

“I cannot make that commitment,” said former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. Associated Press Sept. 26, 2007

Difference in May versus November numbers for key candidates

From Zogby Poll Released Nov. 26, 2007
Democratic candidate in blue

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