The 2010 House and Senate Forecast Models are based on a comprehensive analysis of Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls.
The LV Model predicts a 234-201 GOP House and a 50-48 Democratic Senate. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts a 233-202 GOP House and a 49-49 Senate. Electoral-vote.com has a 51-48-1 Democratic Senate and a 217-200 GOP House with 18 ties. But the registered voter (RV) projections tell a different story.
The Democrats lead the weighted average of 18 Senate RV polls by 8.5%. They lead the corresponding LV sub-samples by 0.9%.
The RV projections indicate a 53-45 Democratic Senate.
The GOP leads the latest 30 House Generic LV polls by 6.8%. They lead the latest 19 RV polls by just 0.7%.
The RV projections indicate a 221-214 Republican House. (more…)
The corporate takeover of California is on hold according to the latest polls out of the nation’s largest state. Just nine days before the election, the Los Angeles Times and University of Southern California poll shows a nearly impossible uphill battle for the big business ticket of former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and former HP CEO Carly Fiorina.
Among likely voters in the governor’s race, Brown leads Whitman 50% to 38%. In the race for United States Senator, two term Senator Barbara Boxer maintained an 8% lead. The leads by Democrats come from a brand new constituency, those who “never” go to church. More on that later. (more…)
Here’s my prediction for the Senate races. I see the Democrats holding on to a 54 seat majority. If this happens, the thing to watch are the rules for the new Senate. Will Reid keep to that 60 vote requirement that he’s used to kill any progressive legislation? Duh, of course he will!
My predictions don’t matter that much but the Presidential Atlas site is a gem. You can get data, review past elections, and participate in a forum. It’s an excellent resource. The site is without any bias whatsoever. Dave Liep collects the data and you get real election results., unlike those provided on election night. A good deal of voting results come in up to a month after the election. Membership is free, right column. (more…)
It seems, therefore, that millions of foreclosures that have occurred in the past two years may be invalid. Investors who were part of the $8,000 tax credit program may not have valid mortgages and may not legally have the right to live in their home. Title insurance companies have stopped accepting mortgage titles from GMAC and other financial firms implicated in this situation. Numerian (more…)
This is part I of a multipart series to demonstrate how everyone in Washington—and one-term President Barack Obama in particular—are telegraphing the fact that they will be gearing up for a major campaign to steal money from Senior Citizens by making drastic changes to “fix” the Social Security program.
Why oh Why are the Democrats not making Social Security an Issue? Wonders Rachel Maddow (click here and search for “The Ad Democrats Need to Win” for the segment—will edit as avail). As admirable as she is for being quite possibly the most intelligent person on cable news, the incorrect rhetorical effect she seeks is to demonstrate that Democrats are really bad at politics. She points out that many prominent Republicans have plainly said that they will privatize social security or eliminate it altogether, which for obvious reasons is vastly unpopular with very large majorities of Americans.
If Democrats disagree, surely they will raise their voices. (more…)
The Federal Reserve, in announcing the results of this week’s meeting of the Open Market Committee, surprised the market by revealing it will begin purchasing US Treasury notes and bonds with the principal income it receives from its vast holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities. This practice – wherein the Fed buys up US government securities and injects cash into the public market as payment for these securities – is a form of monetizing the debt.
The last time the Fed did this on a big scale was back in the 1960s when it attempted to mop up the excess Treasury securities that were flooding the market as a result of Lyndon Johnson’s efforts to finance the Vietnam War. That Fed program was viewed at the time as a failure, since the cash the Fed put back into the economy in exchange for the securities was a big reason – perhaps the major reason – why price inflation accelerated from the late 1960s until a decade later, when Paul Volcker managed to squelch inflation once and for all with forbiddingly high interest rates. Fraught with risk (more…)
The graph to the right is from the Center for Budget Policy and Priorities. It shows the relative contribution of various factors to the deficit. It’s not a full exposition, but take it for what it’s worth. If we stopped the wars, restored the Bush tax cuts on the wealthiest citizens, and ended TARP, we would make a huge contribution to reducing the current deficit.
So why hasn’t that happened? Congress and the White House would rather kill people overseas, reward Wall Street failures, and coddle the wealthiest citizens than reducethe deficit.
The solutions aren’t that hard. Will they take action? Of course not.